Bayesian Estimation of Test Characteristics of Novel Molecular Microarray Assay and Bacteriological Culture for Diagnosis of Mycoplasma californicum Mastitis using Latent Class Analysis.

Molecular microarray assay superior to culture for M. californicum diagnosis in dairy cattle.

This field study evaluated diagnostic test characteristics for Mycoplasma californicum mastitis in dairy cattle using Bayesian latent class analysis (BLCA), which eliminates the assumption of a perfect reference test. Researchers analyzed 955 milk samples from two California dairy herds using molecular microarray assay (MMA) and bacterial culture. MMA demonstrated superior sensitivity (83%) compared to bacterial culture (60%), while both tests showed excellent specificity (>99%). The estimated true prevalence of M. californicum was substantially higher than apparent prevalence detected by culture alone (67% and 18.25% in two populations versus 22% apparent prevalence), indicating significant underdiagnosis with conventional methods. BLCA methodology provided a robust statistical framework for comparing imperfect diagnostic tests without assuming gold standard reference test availability. The findings support MMA as a superior routine diagnostic tool for detecting M. californicum mastitis in dairy herds, enabling timely intervention and herd management decisions.

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