Prevalence and Spatial Distribution Modelling of Fasciola Species Infection in Sheep in Northwest Ethiopia.

Regular deworming, monitoring body condition, and targeting high-risk zones around Lake Tana are essential for fasciolosis control in Ethiopian sheep.

This cross-sectional study investigated the prevalence, risk factors, and spatial distribution of Fasciola spp. infection in sheep across six districts in northwestern Ethiopia (Gondar administrative zones) between June and August 2023. Using fecal sedimentation technique on 399 randomly selected sheep, researchers identified an overall prevalence of 33.3% (95% CI: 28.7–37.9%), indicating a substantial fasciolosis burden in the region. Logistic regression analysis identified three significant host-related risk factors: lack of deworming (AOR = 1.9), poor body condition score (AOR = 1.7), and female sex (AOR = 1.6). Ecological niche modelling via MaxEnt algorithm incorporated georeferenced occurrence data with bioclimatic and remote sensing variables. Temperature annual range (BIO7; 41.4% contribution) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI; 24.7%) were the most influential environmental predictors of habitat suitability. The model predicted high-suitability zones in South and Central Gondar, particularly around Lake Tana — consistent with the presence of Fasciola intermediate host snails in irrigated and waterlogged environments. Lower suitability was associated with drier, less vegetated areas. Notably, the model flagged previously unsampled locations as potentially high-risk. These findings underscore the importance of integrating host-level management practices (regular anthelmintic treatment, nutrition) with landscape-level surveillance strategies. The MaxEnt modelling approach demonstrates practical utility for prioritizing control interventions in resource-limited, endemic settings where comprehensive surveillance is logistically challenging.

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